tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-56189786802800006682024-02-20T03:32:06.646-08:00Invest in value.....Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-8165058656015450582011-04-27T04:45:00.000-07:002011-06-09T03:27:16.050-07:00Sell off expected in Rate sensitives.Reality sector looks more weak! Mkts may remain range bound or could see a dip from here. It looks a bit overheated keeping the currrent scenario where credit becomes expensive (19300)<br /><br />The silverlinning is a good kharif crop creating a surplus among farmers. Concern remains on monsoon and higher crude prices.<br /><br />Buy Jain Irrigation , Camson Biotec on declines!<br />Kaveri seeds looks nice from these levels , along with Rallis India<br />Buy Monsanto as a large cap in this space....Low risk low return!<br /><br />Keep an Eye on NESCO for a completely undervalue property business :)Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-16692934373955377832010-02-09T16:35:00.001-08:002010-02-09T16:35:44.657-08:00A small cap Risky PickBuy Alumeco India Extrusions (CMP: 12.5)Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-26988730297392841702009-10-31T18:44:00.000-07:002010-09-24T19:07:05.464-07:00We are almost entering in another Recession PhaseLooking at the scenario, I dont feel that this recovery from the recession may last. However if Stimulus packages dry upp we may se lower consumer demand globally. We can see another small dip in this slump which may continue in Mid 2010 all the way upto late 2011.India will still outperform.<br /><br />As of now, its better not to bet on growth and discount equity on a higher end. For economies like India moderate growth between 5-7 percent can be expected. As said earlier 5.8% is what we could expect. Liquidity could be some concern in the next few quarters although not as grave as earlier.Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-19984014375225553992009-10-29T05:20:00.000-07:002010-09-24T19:13:20.516-07:00Be Careful!!We are quite high levels.....and Growth targets for next year are much lower from expected. I see the GDP forecast between 5.6-5.8% but not more than 6.2%. Consumer demand seems however been picking up.Hence its safer to move into automobile and Consumer goods especially the later.<br />Markets could plummet if the results are below expectations.<br /><br />To look at atleast 20% safe upside. I recommend the following<br /><br />ITC<br />Glaxo (2000+)<br />Nestle (10% more++++)<br />and P and G ( CMP: 1422 ;should touch its high of 1650+)<br />Colgate.<br />these stocks have very litlle downside even if the markets fall.<br /><br />Marico, Dabur and Enami are also good but I would bet on MNCs. Marico is better in Indian FMCGs if you looking a growth in the next 4-5 years.<br /><br />Nirma, will grow slow owing to undeperforming marketing strategy, but some investment is recommended here. Although MNCs should be given more concentration.<br /><br />Hindustan lever (HUL) would be a lagger in this space being an MNC. Co<br /><br />Kindly note that these stocks are not only buffers but at the same time will lead the rally in case the Sensex goes to 20k and Nifty to 6k as the pure factors driving this will be Indias consumer demand.<br /><br />Even at higher levels a hold is recommended in these stocks<br /><br />As I have always said..try exiting Reliance stocks of both the Reliance groups.They will underperform.<br /><br />Auto story will also be driven by huge consumer demands in comming heres. Hero Honda, Tata motors and Maruti remain good picks. :)Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-29645867641824888312008-06-27T13:42:00.000-07:002008-06-27T13:44:20.974-07:00A blog after a really longtime......<br /><br />But it took me long to assimilate and understand....so indeed sorry for the delay..<br />I don’t know where to start, how to start but I will make an attempt. It was January where the same markets were booming and now each day I see stocks at throwaway prices. Are the indeed so cheap? What's the difference in the same markets from Jan to June.............that it has corrected nearly 30% from the tops...<br />Small caps have lost nearly 50-70% some even reduced to 1/4th of their market cap (or price). How and why did this take place?<br /><br />It all starts so.... A fresh year starts in January all parameters were under control...easy available of liquidity, companies all set for their capex expansions plan, credit at cheap (if not cheap at least at moderate) rates , Inflation (around 3.5%) well under control and hence the economy was all set to grow from there. In addition markets boom in January as well generally. January brought all new hopes to FIIs , retail investors, companies and even to the Indian economy.<br /><br />But the world is dynamic. Inflation crept up as crude which was expensive went more expensive i.e. from 95 to 135$ a barrel up nearly 35%. Crude had already rallied last year from $70 levels to $100+ and the rally continued. Crude took energy prices up as well as other commodities creating a huge problem for not you or me but everyone. US suffered from the rise but emerging economies suffered much more as emerging economies (Indian and China) were the place driving the demand story for crude. Supplies were almost constant. Discovery new fields were on a decline as per the trend. Short Term crude prices are projected at $150/ barrel some say even $200 barrels. On the other side of the coin we have people stating $60/barrel. My idea on this is....the price is high as the demand has increased. Demand cannot come down very quickly as shifting to alternative energy sources immediately is not so easy. Moreover, Growth continues so Short term demand seems robust, keeping short term inflation robust. The only way to fight inflation is to increase interest rates (REPO ,CRR, PLR and so on). But that may hinder growth as credit will become expensive in the short term for consumers as well as companies eyeing their capex plans.<br /><br />As Growth might slow down, definitely not too much , we see the demand to lower, thus in turn bringing stability by stabilizing the demand supply curve. Production may also increase as promised by some of the OPEC countries. Inspite of this, from these levels crude looks bullish. I am definitely bearish keeping the long-term perspective wherein non-conventional sources and renewable sources called crude alternatives may come into play. But it is not as easy as I said.<br /><br />To cut a long story short, I will have a cyclical representation.<br /><br /><br /><br /> (need to show a diagram)<br /><br />Crude is all ok, but what does it imply to our economy? Lets take an eg…The reality sector is hit hard so hard that even the top favorites are at below IPO price. The scenario needs to be understood carefully. The prices of raw materials will increase due to inflation. Development needs credit which will be difficult to find as lower no of capital investors due to slower growth. Moreover if credit obtained it will be quite expensive creating high interest costs. This will make the company suffer on margins. Moreover consumer demand will slow down which may be investor driven or end consumer driven. End consumers may find difficult to buy property at high interest rates or EMIs. This will also mean that funds may be blocked in developed and undeveloped land creating in a slight competitiveness, decreasing property prices. Decreased property prices will also decrease investor morale as well as hit company margins. It may continue till inflation rises and interest rates are hiked until an equilibrium all parameters are obtained.<br /><br />This is not to end up with all but the interest on credit and capex plans of all companies from engg to Consumer durable (CD), capital goods (CG) , infrastructure , power and banks as well. In fact, bank margins may decrease due to high interest rates. Lending of credit will be also on a decline. All types of capex plans signify growth. Any hindrance in it means a slower growth. The question is how slower? And the answer is how much inflation………..and to reduce it, is a the rate hike in interest enough.<br /><br />So we go round the bush and end on inflation. How can single commodity crude drive inflation? Energy is a must, for life to sustain and increase in energy demand is imp for growth to sustain. Crude is not just energy but its byproducts have an array of organic compounds that generate a dye to turpentine (industrial solvents) to water proofing agents and even drugs. It affects every individual directly or indirectly. Every individual travels or buys goods that use logistics. Nothing grows in a city where I live called Mumbai. So it affects me a lot indeed.<br />Hence is crude is a lot to an industry and an individual but not only energy. Moreover rise in crude promotes rise in various cereals and foodgrains used for generation of ethanol via fermentation. Ethanol is a crude substitute. Thus foodgrains are at a shortage as they are used for energy purposes. In addition crude drives the energy basket increasing prices of coal, cooking gas, etc. It also drives gold and precious metals along and sometimes even base metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, lead ,tin) sometimes. Hence in one way it drives inflation.<br /><br /><br />Another large concern is political instability in India as well as US due to elections. In short too many negatives and too less or none positives.<br /><br /><br />So…..What can one do in the scenario…<br /><br />India and China will have to grow and there is no doubt. Population will rise consumption story will continue flourishing it as a better domestic economy. Global problems may subside, like crude which is globally affected we import it so we import inflation. Land has to become less and infrastructure is a prime need in infrastructure ruined country. Its like India has to grow …so infrastructure has to…<br />So if valuations are low one can look at long term. Global problems need time to get stabilized so do political problems need time. We import inflation as we import crude and rise in crude is a global mega-problem. The apt saying describes the recent fall “ Sell in MAY and go AWAY”. But after every may is a January which makes markets boom.<br /><br />The markets are demanding. Two things obviously, your money and your patience (time). So wait and watch and don’t loose it!!!!! (‘it’ means money as well as patience)<br /><br /><br /><br />-Govinda Ahuja.Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-69914192589461018172008-05-22T04:18:00.000-07:002008-05-22T04:34:05.487-07:00NMDC puts upp a good show...after bonus today inspite of heavy selling we saw NMDC moving uppp 4%<br />all i know 510 now (ex bonus 1500,15k ex bonus ex split,,,)<br />All people having holding can obiously hold retain...<br />gremach infra....mmoving upppp 161 on it.. agin longterm higfh risk high return...will check its progress and come back soon..<br /><br />New pick Cerebra Info looks goood nice reults...small cap space<br />Cals refinireies too looks good (These are not my picks but i appreciate them)<br /><br />Kalpana recommmded at 105 moves upto 130 (22% gains).<br />Praj from 145 to now 200.............will continue trhe rally until crude will rally<br />It comes under renewableenergy sector which contains...Suzlon , praj as well as Webel Solar power SE all will move in case crude touches 150$ a barel. We are all set to see a 150.<br />Along with it it will carry all refineries like cairn, reliance (not active now) and exploration like aban(was upp today a buy was given for longtem in earluier blogs.......) and HOEC (hind oil explo company)<br /><br /><br />Bartronics looks to slow down...profit booking partly recooomended..long term prospect still look good after this rise.....<br /><br />Sterlite technlogies hold as well as GTl infra both are lions in telecom space....Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-29258620736848482322008-05-12T07:50:00.000-07:002008-05-12T07:55:33.174-07:00Some small cap IdeasSmall caps ahave always been rsiky in tumbling markets...<br /><br />Some a few that seem goood.<br />Kalpana Inds(CMP 105).........nice company a P/E at abt 5. A pretty decent P-BV and growth tooo...excellent product line.<br />Visesh Info...good in It space along with Cerebra Integrated Technologies.<br />Already people who lifescience were caught in a midcap Camson Biotechnologies....at 90 odd<br />has bounced back to 120-130 levels<br />accumate all the above for a a risky high return play..<br /><br />Among the largecaps....<br />Jindal Saw....<br />Bad results.<br />But this is a time toi accumalte it...<br />current levels looks expensive as per forward earnnings.<br />Can buy on markets crash at around 500Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-72821030255749969852008-05-07T06:46:00.000-07:002008-05-07T06:48:28.394-07:00Sterlite technologiestry acculating this at every decline<br />CMP 225 arnd...<br />good lookn at at the longterm prespective..........<br />I am sinceely adding it...<br />its a high risk stock so if arent a risky guy its not ur bet...Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-72381314928801641612008-05-07T06:36:00.001-07:002008-05-07T06:38:57.958-07:00a technical call againbartronics again looks to be a buy from here...<br />main tain a stop of 225 to fetch 252 and then 280.....<br />292 is the top of the stock...<br />partially book profits close to 252 and 268.....<br />add if it rallies above 292 on good volume<br />obey 225 as a strict stop loss if it falls only with gr8 volumes.....in case of a heavy midcap sell offf...<br />keep having fun...<br />cya tc..Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-11635327520949073462008-04-28T08:44:00.000-07:002008-04-28T08:56:22.569-07:00UpdatesBartronics touches 205 odd,,,,my call is hold....book part<br />LIC hosuing finance recvommended at 278 (price on april 10) runs to 357 (11.5% upp today).<br />It was on account of good results.<br />The consumption driven story of India will drive it........I give it a hold at 360 (+30% from calls given)<br />IRB infra (IPO recommended) today at 212. Hold again<br />NMDC back in action with a circuit.<br />One more addition the list my very old HEG... but at 260-280 around.....to reep longterm benifits...<br />Jp assco up as well touches 250 odd.....Hold add for longterm.....avoid addding on rises... a litlle satta driven..Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-53752279118811555032008-04-15T05:54:00.000-07:002008-04-15T06:09:45.418-07:00A detailed list on each sector.<span style="font-size:130%;"><strong>Retail:</strong></span><br />I think no retail stocks look cheap valuation vise even after the decline.<br />But still i like too in midcap space<br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>Bartronics</strong>: Buy already given at 145 arnd. I maintain it to be one of the good midcaop retail proxies. I maintain an accumalte at 145 around. We can see a minimum of 50% returns in the next 12-18 months depending on market conditions. Prelimanry target is 180 and 225 looks a secondary target. The possibiliy of earlier highs closing 280 is also a possibilty but quite rear.<br />One the risk return plot i will give it a low risk medium return at 145.<br /><br /><strong>Piramyd Retail.</strong><br />Its not a proficatble company since today. After the Ibulls aquistion it has a good future as the group does not pose any funding problem. Time period looks stretched overall. I maintain a hold for now and a buy on declines close to 70. A period of 36-45 months looks advisable in this stock.<br />In the risk return plot......high risk , high returns. A turn around Piramyd retail looks gr8 and can be a multi bagger.<br /><br /><strong>INFRASTRUCTURE</strong><br />The space has been out of limelight after the current bear phase.<br />Some midcaps and small cap look good<br />Unity Infras(545), Gremach (good price to enter 115),<br />In the land bank companies.........I am a bit sceptical but DLF ,HDIL and peninsula Land look safe. I would take safety companies especilly in this space..........Land is a bit hyped and can correct owing to global liquidity problems. However i see only 10-15% downside from here .......<br />Below that actaully means we are in a severe property correction phase or the global liquidity condition is quite stretched.<br />Jp Assco.....looks to be consolidate....i see 180-205 a good buy zone. Medimu risk mdium return on the whole space.<br />Unity infra however low risk medium returns.<br />Gremach at todays price.......high returns, mdeium risk...<br />will come up with more sectors shortly....<br />diversify....keep some dark horses in.....<br />one multibagger and 5 loosers , still u will be a winner.<br />As u know (100 sonarki ,ek loharki :) )Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-56657228800202646062008-04-10T08:48:00.000-07:002008-04-10T08:54:19.420-07:00I had given V imp status to NMDCin the earlier scraps if u see i had said NMDC is very imp a strong buy..<br />from 9500 to 14000+ (now splitted to arnd1410).<br />This is in a bear market.<br />I think the rally we continue and the next pt is somewhere arnd....1750 (17.5k)<br /><br />Long term target i maintain 2500(25k,275% return) target.<br /><br /><br />watch out.<br /><br />Another strong buy i said was gremach infra...<br />keep accumalting on declines..<br />5 year hold. high risk, high return<br /><br />LIC housing finance looks pretty decent for low risk people so returs will be low too..<br />target seems close to 350 (35% return)<br />buying zone best price at 250-260.<br /><br />Infra(Land banks) is a bit out of lime lite...<br />collect ur favorite stcok at decline..<br />HDIL however is the safest...and the bluechip is DLF<br />The space needs time...Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-5681199786200850032008-04-01T08:37:00.000-07:002008-04-01T09:29:23.094-07:00The economy still in the dark........the only way out is defense.<strong>Economic prospective.</strong><br />The major problems seen in recent time:<br />1. IIP nos pathetic, showing slow groth in manufacturing sector.....so slow growth can be imagined overall in economy .<br />2. Crude ,Gold prices fuelling up...<br />Food grains price pushing upp......putting growth in inflatory zone. 6.7% is indeed a bad sign.<br />Control on infaltion can only be obtained by increasing interest rates which will also put growth under slower track. High Grwoth is good only if infaltion is under control.<br />3. The currency seems to sterngthen putting exports in terms of services (software, ITES) as well as all other export oriented themes<br />4. Elections next year hence political unstability is imagined.<br /><br />The US is gradually moving towards a slow calm recession and no outcome seems possible. Interests rates at all time low, dollar weakning against all major curriences especially euro, crude fuelling upto 110$/barrel Gold touching $1000+/troy ounce are bad signs. Commodity infaltion putting gloabl central banks under pressure. Major banks registering liquidity crunch and is now spreading to UK thus the effect is large in terms not only in liquidity magnitude but geographical magnitudes too.........<br />The issue remains from subprime to morgtage lenders to Subprime bond insurers and now investment banks. Its now spreading to US economy and finally Global economies. The Us eletcions are on their way so nothing can be said about the future policy there too...<br /><br />In this case whats the problem in Asia and emerging markets. We will narrow our spectrum a bit and talk on India and China. Where China's dependence on US for exports is large a slowdown may hit Percapita income as well as PPP in the US resulting declining exports and slowing the economy.<br />Whereas India which is still said to be a domestic economy will be less hit. Its true but still i feel the brunt will be faced here. We depend on software exports to the US and also services like BPOs and KPOs.The bulk of this comes from the US BFSI and manufacturing sector which in turn is in trouble. Reduction in projects will lead to a bit unemployement and salaries amy not move briskly. The so called "domestic economy" will not produce its growing middle class and the dream may be schattered. On the other hand we have a partial hedge by new clients from US and UK which may start outsourcing owing to cost cutting measures and to improve profitability in the recession.<br />Indias Booming infrastructure space has to face the problem of the global liquidity crunch. DLF (Forbes 2000, more than 3 quarters of BSE reality index in market cap) has canceled its REETS singapore issue. Projects are slowing down suffuring lack of investments. Thats a bad sign.<br />Things like tax limits raced in the budget may fuel domestic momentum and per capita income fulling domestic market a bit. Things like 60,000cr to the farmers by the Hon Union Finance minister is to appreciated as it will increase domestic agro productivity and help bring infaltion under control compared to the global scenario. But the Global infaltionary effects will still be prevalent.<br />What is to be seen in this year is:<br />1 How we can save ourselves from the global infaltion moves?<br />2. How the US economy moves and the effects on India's service sector?<br />3. Investments ?Will they continue? espeacially in reality and infra?<br />4. How the Indian and the US elections take place and what is the result?Hence what will be the new policy?<br />Its a chaotic situation for the short term. Long term India will produce better growth in Asia. It will be an imp investment destination. SO hold on...........invest for the longterm. Forget the shortterm jitters around buy at reasonable valuations. Be stock specific not sector specific.Do not discount on CAGRs but imagine the total global dependenices of the scrip and the effect on liquidity commodity prices on its earning.Its not simple to invest now in case of the global turnmoil. Time will produce results and produce above answers making the rainy sky of investment clear like a sunny day.Trust yourselves, if not invest only via MFs.Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-24954223906135789852008-03-19T12:32:00.000-07:002008-03-19T12:35:52.625-07:00Markets bearish....<br />Bad sighne evereyday<br />Us economy slowing down<br />buy slowly....push money very slowly....<br />start buying now<br />IDFC.<br />DLF,HDIL<br />Mundra port<br />Praj Ind<br />TATA power<br />TATA Mot<br />R ccomm<br />Gremach infra-very imp<br />JP assco<br />NMDC-very imp<br />Punj loyd<br />HDFC.Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-49713849117384152432008-02-01T23:05:00.000-08:002008-02-01T23:11:33.264-08:00results season buy cheaper cheapestgood results season<br /><br />tor from declines buy for mining sector beautiful set of nos<br />Ashpura minechem good below 280 as well as GMDC<br /><br />PRAJ inds still good gremach infra looks good on every decline<br /><br />in some good pharma pics jupiter bioscisences is good<br />enjoyy tc:)<br />if u on cash buy long term upternd is sure<br />.Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-14921767224142517172008-01-18T08:09:00.000-08:002008-01-18T08:16:53.688-08:00Mkts in correction good time to buy if u sit on cash...hmm<br />geodesic info good in IT for long term players.....2-3 yrs holding minimum 18 months....<br />Power grid looking existing at levels lower from here.....<br />GTL infra looks good......so does......................Gremach infra (at 390).........<br />Stock specific ideas will be better<br />Sadbhav recommended at 600 already at 1400 my call hold.....50 PE multiple is fairly priced.........<br />alll for the day<br />buy quality pay value......Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-63144814009843208622007-11-13T03:03:00.000-08:002007-11-13T03:11:16.780-08:00Its good to see a correction....<em>It was really nice to see a correction comming in..... This will help to set up a base for the further rise..... I see 20200 back but with fundamentally good stocks........</em><br /><em>I hold my target of 22500-25000 for long term players...</em><br /><em>Oil looks weak at $ 97 a barrel</em><br /><em>Power stcoks look good after a correctioon and tehy might see a good rise from hear too</em><br /><em>hence a hold is suggested.</em><br /><em>Commidities will make steel sparkle........</em><br /><em>Regarding IT everyonewill tell what to do</em><br /><em>My answer is that they still grow from 10-15% why not add</em><br /><em>they are still holds.........will be rewarded in the long run........</em><br /><em>I look Infy wipro satyam HCL tech mindtreee good but ii cant forget geodesic and Rolta on corrections.</em><br /><em>We havent finished a bull run nor in its midway is my word but we would like to accumalate stocks where earning visibility is ssen</em><br /><em>Evry one having sadbhav engg my call can hold</em><br /><em>I maintain a target of 1200, let it test its time in 1000.</em><br /><em>Infy looks good on supports near 1625.</em><br /><em>I dunno why i love infy :P hahhahahha</em><br /><em>To add to the list cairn india looks good above 200+</em><br /><em>Mudra SEZ will list take a long term bet on it..............</em><br /><em>Thats all for the last blog of the year it seems unless sum suoearnatural occurs</em><br /><em>cya tc enjoy</em>Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-38621359700562570512007-10-16T22:38:00.000-07:002007-10-16T22:39:39.167-07:00time to buybuy low PE stcoks<br />like infy and others<br />Ril energy is worst hit ...one who goes up comes down qucikly<br />mkts will come up above 18kGovindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-88732429069939887162007-10-05T02:06:00.000-07:002007-10-05T02:18:18.326-07:00we are indeed in an uptrend but are we expensive?we have always said that the mkts above pe multiple of 25-26 (17k for today) is expensive but the ease at which we are trading is astnoshing to all analysts. Emereging mkts are always discounted and indeed expensive hence. But we are the second fastest growing economy in the world why cant the discounting be for a long period?<br />Chinese mkts showed bumper growth and easily trade at Pe multiples of 38-50 which is a result of heavy discounting. The question at pe multiples for us should not be that we are trading at heavy valuations but should be "Are we redefining the word valuation for the Indian economy"<br />If the answer is if we are the why cant we too trade at 45 PE multiple and if it does i see the mkts above 20000 or more say 25000. The only thing needed is the change of perception for this................. :)<br /><br />It is absolutley the same mkt the same thing which we see but the lenses will change hence the colors of growth......<br /><br /><br />So keep a watch on index stocks like RIL(and RCom) L&T SBI Bharti BHEL ONGC.........<br />They look cheap if we change perception......its upto u too decide...Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-77742646538001594202007-09-06T05:19:00.000-07:002007-09-06T05:37:46.040-07:00liquidity problems subsidethe market in uptrend due to<br />1. No global problems like yen carry trade and subprime related liquidity crunch.<br />2. Overall domestic poletical problems over<br /><br />So bad news is not there and 9.3% GDp is enough to keep upward momentum intact.. A good news may just put the market in anaother fresh rally where it will reside into the clouds say over 16200 where the floor could be 14850 and trading brsikly above 16500+ where the target could be easily 17150.<br />But this is possible if both the above conditions atre intact.<br />Currently the senario according to me is a ytarget of 16000 or 16150 but a good float at 14500.<br />Value buying lies at 13390 (using Pe multiple calculations)<br />put in money in the market in good stocks (illiquid stocks midcaps) or might be good liquid stocks which are ot rally driven. Think of stocks as u can take them home and marry them but not as one night strand....<br />For traders trade is FMCG its safest.(ITC,HUL,GSK cons is betterr)<br />Among my buys Geodesic info looks good alomg with a hold on elecon lanco and Sadbhav engg.<br />Buy Power at ur risk and if u have power (those who read my previous blog) hold it at my risk.<br />telecom looks good to me.<br />Invest in MF if u dont understand the market trend.......:)<br />IT looks good as valutaion for long term<br />I know u have losses in IT dont sell them off.<br />Add if u trust them and add trusted ones only.<br />Dont trade in liquid stocks. They are the one largest hit by above problems<br />Buy futrs keep 15-20% loss bearing capability.<br />Dont belive in Diwali funda mkt are not emotionals as Indians are.<br />this is the best time to restructure porfolios do that now.....Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-50992787325771016242007-06-13T10:55:00.000-07:002007-06-13T11:03:53.728-07:00mkt reviewI think the correction needed was sufficient to accumalate funds for DLF<br />But valuation wise atleast 13400 is an imp zone where value buying can be done for long term<br />Some stocks are richly valued for longterms<br />all bieng in A grp are autos!<br />Tata Motors -640<br />maruti 720 odd<br />an M&m<br />bharat forge again is comming in the best zone 300-306 hehehheh<br /><br />Buy HEg at 166 good story good price<br />Praj is rallying and many other power stocks<br />hold on!<br />u cant book profits<br /><br />Avaya looks good arnd 300 in valuation<br /><br />My views on DLF<br />Subscribe the poison if u can feel the pain for longer times!<br /><br /><br />Icici bnk post ipo will remain quite strong<br />u can trade in both directions it will be jittery to give profit<br />band 845-950<br />1000 will be aproblem to cross on weak mkt days!hehehhe<br /><br />Buy in rolta @ 390<br />and infy<br />@1925<br />both look good aat these rates<br />investors at higher rate may not exist<br /><br />Pharma buy aurobindo pharma and suven life ciences<br />dont forget jupiter biosc.its risky although!Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-54219679807332417642007-05-31T07:22:00.000-07:002007-05-31T07:31:54.955-07:00I repeat increase exposure in power stocks!Buy ABB hehehehehe it looks to touch 4950-5075(before or after split u decide)<br />buy siemnens both for short term and longterm<br />BheL hold on add on declines<br />Gvk power and infra Hold (time over to buy!)<br />Lanco Buy add!<br />Kalpataru power shift to better options<br /><br /><br />Fixed deposits in the sector:Siemns ABB Suzlon AReva T&d BEL and bharat Bijlee<br />Buy all these now and on declines. they are evergreen.<br />Voltamp trans indotech transformers hold on add on declines<br /><br />KLG systel (cmp 450)power managemnt solutions Add Target 700-800<br />ICSA huge run still add on<br />Alstom Project hold on<br />Easaun reyolle Add 1100 tagret atleast 1000 ITs a siemsns company<br />BEL Bharat bijlee always evergreen along with BHEL!<br />Diversify along cables and stocks like jyoti structures(buy jyoti arnd 165-170)<br /><br /><br /><br />For real apprecation keep them upto 2010-2012 I guarantee u rich........richie rich. I dont think u should sell any of them shifting is better options.Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-71239521101351404152007-05-26T04:21:00.001-07:002007-05-26T04:24:24.146-07:00ABB at 4400!People still dont like ABB<br />ill tell them wait and watch<br />accumalte on declines<br />i hope u may not see them<br />4650 i see without any visual aid (hehehhehehheheheh)<br />Fiis money is flowing slowly and steady in ABb<br /><br /><br />Discussing on powe onme more<br />long term invetsors suzlon the new aveneue in power.<br />Short term suzlon may under perform!Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-31699709384318744932007-05-26T04:18:00.001-07:002007-05-26T04:19:59.332-07:00Why worry of bajaj auto!BAjaj Auto demerger looks good<br />invetors will benifit in this in next 6-8 months with 20% upside frm current levels<br />At bare consequences 2550 looks minimum to me<br />Take positions!Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5618978680280000668.post-33202667233781226442007-05-26T04:06:00.000-07:002007-05-26T04:17:32.091-07:00Infrastructure diversify and win!Parswanath Sez story looks prommising i think long term exposure can be taken.ipo price is best for this!<br />IVRCl looks stretched as of now.<br />Peninsula looks good at current so does dsk pune.(pune still has property scope for rise)infact i am bullish on maharashtra property prices especially nasik and kolhapur now where dsk is promising! I want u all to comment on this<br />Shobha looks neatural so does Bl kashyap and unitech. DLF IPO can give them value with new value bands ( thats the only reason i mentioned them actaully i dont like them!).<br />Mahindra Gesco is better among giants<br />COnstruction qipement looks better BEML( leader),simplex (on declines)ACE .Greaves cotton is also promisng along with ingersoil RAnd.<br />Lanco is good amon g tha pack will take time to touch ipo price<br />Stay away from HCC (if u not planning more than 3-4 yrs)<br />Ril infra is good ril pack is picking up hope to see more.<br />L&t, punj loyd , simplex(sort off), gammon are safe money bets(fixed deposits in this sectors)Govindafinancialshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12868111896668232106noreply@blogger.com0