The economy still in the dark........the only way out is defense.

Economic prospective.
The major problems seen in recent time:
1. IIP nos pathetic, showing slow groth in manufacturing sector.....so slow growth can be imagined overall in economy .
2. Crude ,Gold prices fuelling up...
Food grains price pushing upp......putting growth in inflatory zone. 6.7% is indeed a bad sign.
Control on infaltion can only be obtained by increasing interest rates which will also put growth under slower track. High Grwoth is good only if infaltion is under control.
3. The currency seems to sterngthen putting exports in terms of services (software, ITES) as well as all other export oriented themes
4. Elections next year hence political unstability is imagined.

The US is gradually moving towards a slow calm recession and no outcome seems possible. Interests rates at all time low, dollar weakning against all major curriences especially euro, crude fuelling upto 110$/barrel Gold touching $1000+/troy ounce are bad signs. Commodity infaltion putting gloabl central banks under pressure. Major banks registering liquidity crunch and is now spreading to UK thus the effect is large in terms not only in liquidity magnitude but geographical magnitudes too.........
The issue remains from subprime to morgtage lenders to Subprime bond insurers and now investment banks. Its now spreading to US economy and finally Global economies. The Us eletcions are on their way so nothing can be said about the future policy there too...

In this case whats the problem in Asia and emerging markets. We will narrow our spectrum a bit and talk on India and China. Where China's dependence on US for exports is large a slowdown may hit Percapita income as well as PPP in the US resulting declining exports and slowing the economy.
Whereas India which is still said to be a domestic economy will be less hit. Its true but still i feel the brunt will be faced here. We depend on software exports to the US and also services like BPOs and KPOs.The bulk of this comes from the US BFSI and manufacturing sector which in turn is in trouble. Reduction in projects will lead to a bit unemployement and salaries amy not move briskly. The so called "domestic economy" will not produce its growing middle class and the dream may be schattered. On the other hand we have a partial hedge by new clients from US and UK which may start outsourcing owing to cost cutting measures and to improve profitability in the recession.
Indias Booming infrastructure space has to face the problem of the global liquidity crunch. DLF (Forbes 2000, more than 3 quarters of BSE reality index in market cap) has canceled its REETS singapore issue. Projects are slowing down suffuring lack of investments. Thats a bad sign.
Things like tax limits raced in the budget may fuel domestic momentum and per capita income fulling domestic market a bit. Things like 60,000cr to the farmers by the Hon Union Finance minister is to appreciated as it will increase domestic agro productivity and help bring infaltion under control compared to the global scenario. But the Global infaltionary effects will still be prevalent.
What is to be seen in this year is:
1 How we can save ourselves from the global infaltion moves?
2. How the US economy moves and the effects on India's service sector?
3. Investments ?Will they continue? espeacially in reality and infra?
4. How the Indian and the US elections take place and what is the result?Hence what will be the new policy?
Its a chaotic situation for the short term. Long term India will produce better growth in Asia. It will be an imp investment destination. SO hold on...........invest for the longterm. Forget the shortterm jitters around buy at reasonable valuations. Be stock specific not sector specific.Do not discount on CAGRs but imagine the total global dependenices of the scrip and the effect on liquidity commodity prices on its earning.Its not simple to invest now in case of the global turnmoil. Time will produce results and produce above answers making the rainy sky of investment clear like a sunny day.Trust yourselves, if not invest only via MFs.

Markets bearish....
Bad sighne evereyday
Us economy slowing down
buy slowly....push money very slowly....
start buying now
IDFC.
DLF,HDIL
Mundra port
Praj Ind
TATA power
TATA Mot
R ccomm
Gremach infra-very imp
JP assco
NMDC-very imp
Punj loyd
HDFC.

results season buy cheaper cheapest

good results season

tor from declines buy for mining sector beautiful set of nos
Ashpura minechem good below 280 as well as GMDC

PRAJ inds still good gremach infra looks good on every decline

in some good pharma pics jupiter bioscisences is good
enjoyy tc:)
if u on cash buy long term upternd is sure
.

Mkts in correction good time to buy if u sit on cash...

hmm
geodesic info good in IT for long term players.....2-3 yrs holding minimum 18 months....
Power grid looking existing at levels lower from here.....
GTL infra looks good......so does......................Gremach infra (at 390).........
Stock specific ideas will be better
Sadbhav recommended at 600 already at 1400 my call hold.....50 PE multiple is fairly priced.........
alll for the day
buy quality pay value......

Its good to see a correction....

It was really nice to see a correction comming in..... This will help to set up a base for the further rise..... I see 20200 back but with fundamentally good stocks........
I hold my target of 22500-25000 for long term players...
Oil looks weak at $ 97 a barrel
Power stcoks look good after a correctioon and tehy might see a good rise from hear too
hence a hold is suggested.
Commidities will make steel sparkle........
Regarding IT everyonewill tell what to do
My answer is that they still grow from 10-15% why not add
they are still holds.........will be rewarded in the long run........
I look Infy wipro satyam HCL tech mindtreee good but ii cant forget geodesic and Rolta on corrections.
We havent finished a bull run nor in its midway is my word but we would like to accumalate stocks where earning visibility is ssen
Evry one having sadbhav engg my call can hold
I maintain a target of 1200, let it test its time in 1000.
Infy looks good on supports near 1625.
I dunno why i love infy :P hahhahahha
To add to the list cairn india looks good above 200+
Mudra SEZ will list take a long term bet on it..............
Thats all for the last blog of the year it seems unless sum suoearnatural occurs
cya tc enjoy

time to buy

buy low PE stcoks
like infy and others
Ril energy is worst hit ...one who goes up comes down qucikly
mkts will come up above 18k

we are indeed in an uptrend but are we expensive?

we have always said that the mkts above pe multiple of 25-26 (17k for today) is expensive but the ease at which we are trading is astnoshing to all analysts. Emereging mkts are always discounted and indeed expensive hence. But we are the second fastest growing economy in the world why cant the discounting be for a long period?
Chinese mkts showed bumper growth and easily trade at Pe multiples of 38-50 which is a result of heavy discounting. The question at pe multiples for us should not be that we are trading at heavy valuations but should be "Are we redefining the word valuation for the Indian economy"
If the answer is if we are the why cant we too trade at 45 PE multiple and if it does i see the mkts above 20000 or more say 25000. The only thing needed is the change of perception for this................. :)

It is absolutley the same mkt the same thing which we see but the lenses will change hence the colors of growth......


So keep a watch on index stocks like RIL(and RCom) L&T SBI Bharti BHEL ONGC.........
They look cheap if we change perception......its upto u too decide...