Saturday, October 31, 2009

We are almost entering in another Recession Phase

Looking at the scenario, I dont feel that this recovery from the recession may last. However if Stimulus packages dry upp we may se lower consumer demand globally. We can see another small dip in this slump which may continue in Mid 2010 all the way upto late 2011.India will still outperform.

As of now, its better not to bet on growth and discount equity on a higher end. For economies like India moderate growth between 5-7 percent can be expected. As said earlier 5.8% is what we could expect. Liquidity could be some concern in the next few quarters although not as grave as earlier.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Be Careful!!

We are quite high levels.....and Growth targets for next year are much lower from expected. I see the GDP forecast between 5.6-5.8% but not more than 6.2%. Consumer demand seems however been picking up.Hence its safer to move into automobile and Consumer goods especially the later.
Markets could plummet if the results are below expectations.

To look at atleast 20% safe upside. I recommend the following

Glaxo (2000+)
Nestle (10% more++++)
and P and G ( CMP: 1422 ;should touch its high of 1650+)
these stocks have very litlle downside even if the markets fall.

Marico, Dabur and Enami are also good but I would bet on MNCs. Marico is better in Indian FMCGs if you looking a growth in the next 4-5 years.

Nirma, will grow slow owing to undeperforming marketing strategy, but some investment is recommended here. Although MNCs should be given more concentration.

Hindustan lever (HUL) would be a lagger in this space being an MNC. Co

Kindly note that these stocks are not only buffers but at the same time will lead the rally in case the Sensex goes to 20k and Nifty to 6k as the pure factors driving this will be Indias consumer demand.

Even at higher levels a hold is recommended in these stocks

As I have always said..try exiting Reliance stocks of both the Reliance groups.They will underperform.

Auto story will also be driven by huge consumer demands in comming heres. Hero Honda, Tata motors and Maruti remain good picks. :)