Monday, January 29, 2007

ITc again looks a 168

hold on to hindalco it has seen 180 (163 pe buy call tha ek hafta bhi nahin hua!!!!) Its +10% in a short span!!!!!nalco is up tooooo..................
for fresh people forget it!!!
buy ITC!!!!168 pe
u getting one more chance!!!
buy alumenco below 31-33 ask me before doing this

praj has reached the tgt 330

still dont sell it 390 is next
valuations cheap
long term hold carry on holding
for value buyers god knows if u get an opportunity.........forget it!!!!!!!

Monday, January 22, 2007

New Short term trading ideas with high safety...after muy fmcg PICKS

Exposures in futr (advisible ) for 2 month (with roll over ) can be taken in hindalco and nalco at current levels. The down side from here is not more (less than 5-7%).I infact feel that no down side is left in Hindalco........
U can buy both buth hindalco looks much safer....
we see hindalco gaining atleast 10-15% in short term
For value buying investors for extreme long term these looks highly attractive in this expensive but still strong markets.If interested in aluminium story i suppose this is the right time to enter as valuations are descent enough.
Even if markets fall these stocks will fall less providing a buffer .FROM HERE ON (at peaks)I SUPPOSE SAFETY IS IMPORTANT THAN MOMENTUM.(thats why i told itc and hll last weak)
Exposures in futr for short term trades as well as for long term investors in cash if intereted in aluminium must be taken at these levels..

My reminder on short term tip

My short term call on ITC has proved correct as ITC has moved from 168 levels to 180 levels today inspite the markets range bound ie sideways movemnent(arre market nahin bada par ITC 8% bad gaya woh bhi it was most safe tip)
Tommorows day is important
if above 182 ITC looks good if it falls partial profit booking may be considered if exposues in futr are taken at 170 levels. 182 ke upar ITC promisies 190 and arnd....
For investrors still a hold is recommended......

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Sectors of growth:Retail

The following sectors of growth can be targetted

valuations in retail looks to be higly stretched but still a hold is recommended in all because it just a beginning....................
Pantaloons is a buy at declines but the promise of short term return looks to be decreased as it rallied recently.A hold is recommended for people having holdings below 390.
Provogue looks to be peaked out as it is curretly at peak valuations although it is a gr8 stock to buy at dips more than 20% from these rates.Still better opoortunities do exisit than provogue
Shopper stop and Trent(a buy at dips) are a hold.
Piramyd retail looks to be most attractively valued in this pack at 95 levels.It is a good long term hold.For short term it is range bound between 88-102.Uptrends seen if only above 105 with huge volumes and in that case should surpase 120 levels too.Still it remains more of investor rather than a trading stock.
Bartronics is supposed to be huge proxy into retail (for more details please contact me).It remains a buy at current levels but short term looks a little weak due to a heavy run. My Buy suggestions for bartronics at 100,75,and 55 levels remain a hold for them,and can also buy on dips.For new entrants they should seek opportunity at lower levels or at these levels with a short term risk.
next series will be another growth sector so wait and watch!!!!!!

profits were below expectation for Bf but i still feel it has the steam left in it

Results of bharat forge out today.....

Bharat Forge Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2006:The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 629.73 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 as compared to Rs 532.68 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2005. Total Income (net of excise) has increased from Rs 4154.56 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2005 to Rs 4933.15 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006.The Consolidated Results are as follows:The Group has posted a net profit of Rs 769.57 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 as compared to Rs 626.94 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2005. Total Income (net of excise) has increased from Rs 9566.77 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2005 to Rs 10370.98 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Bharat forge results tommorow looks positive

Bharat forge looks positive on reults as well as for long term(2-3 yrs)
It provides minimum downside.........but huge upside potential hence minimises risk with a good return.
The following features are taken into account..

Bharat Forge, the largest forging company in Asia and the second largest in the world is to declare its Q3FY07 result on 20th January. According to the CNBC-TV18 estimates, the company is expected to post some good numbers in the third quarter. Its net profit (standalone) may go up by 28% YoY at Rs 68 crore against Rs 53 crore during the same quarter last year. The company is expected to post net sales (standalone) up 22% at Rs 487 crore versus Rs 399 crore.

Q3 key points
Expecting improvement in margins on back of higher utility rate of expanded capacities
Increase share of machined components also to add to margins (better product mix) Company expecting cap utility to go up to 75% by end-FY07
Positive surprises possible on account of strong growth in domestic CV market
Domestic sales enjoy higher margins as compared to exports

Key Developments
On the verge of signing for new major contracts of US$50 mn p.a. each (Co. expects the contracts to get signed by end FY07)
Export revenue growth may dip in FY08 w/ slowdown in US heavy truck market next yr
Targeting new avenues in the Non automotive component business (Energy, Hydro carbon, Aerospace, Marine, Mining & metals. Planned investment outlay of Rs 350 cr over next 2 yrs. Capacities to get commissioned by mid to end FY08) Targeting revenues of Rs 1000 cr by 2011 from non-automotive segment

Capacities globally - close to 600,000 MT- India: 240,000 MT working at about 66% cap util- US: 50,000 MT- Germany: 100,000 MT- China: 100,000 MT - working at very low cap util- Sweden and Scotland: 100,000 MT- Chinese JV, FAW Bharat Forge struggling to show positive performance

Signed a MoU with Govt of Mah to jointly develop a SEZ
SEZ expected to attract investments of about Rs 25000 cr

Kalyani Group to hold upto 74% of the equity capital

Looking towards sez plans and entry into china with huge aquisitions and cosolidation of capacities by this yr. It is one of the major growth stories and hence an entry at dips can be taken. current levels look ok for long term but looks a liitle stretched for short term.And imagine its sales by 2011 when non automotive revenues will touch 1000cr($250mn) and auto revenues will obiously zoom.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Trading ideas

Buy ITC looks good after budget Itc looks to be heading to wards 180
post budget 190-195 can be seen as well as 220 can be seen if 195 is crossed with good volumes as FMCG is expected to benifit post budget...........
HLL looks good (ITC though is much diversified). Post budget 250 can be seen or more is expected
Bhart Forge is an accumalate at 320-330 levels.If crosses 385 ,420-430 is easy to attain.
Bharti is a hold and a buy for long term
Hindalco and nalco look value buys and they are difficult to correct frm here
190 is likely in hindalco.
Tata steel is strong 550 looks possible once again in secondary rally. It can buffer portfolio in market crashes.
Sail will retain short term momnetum
IDFC still remains long term buy....125 is 9 mnth tgt may be achieved early too?
Opto ckt is a hold and should accumalate on declines

Some midcap ideas....

Buy porttis and spencer looks gr8 seems touching 390
Buy praj on declines ( arnd 190-210) it looks to head towards 290 by this month( quality stock).
exposure can be taken into praj at these long levels to for extreme long terms as groth story looks good.
Atlanta seems to touch 1650 a hold is recommended.

IT look firms

It stocks are looking good although valuations are bit stretched
still value stocks remain
A buy is suggested in rolta for long to medium term.
Among the front line stocks infy remains evergreen and target in 3 mnth is at 2425.
Infy 2 yr target surpases 3300/-
A hold is recommended in tech mahindra (tgt 2000) ,polaris,3i info
i flex has peaked out and mphasis looks to peak out at 325
Educomp still remains a hold while teledata looks to have good valuations....
tulip It services has peaked out for the short term.....
moser bear is ahold so is NIIt and NIIT tech........