Tuesday, April 1, 2008

The economy still in the dark........the only way out is defense.

Economic prospective.
The major problems seen in recent time:
1. IIP nos pathetic, showing slow groth in manufacturing sector.....so slow growth can be imagined overall in economy .
2. Crude ,Gold prices fuelling up...
Food grains price pushing upp......putting growth in inflatory zone. 6.7% is indeed a bad sign.
Control on infaltion can only be obtained by increasing interest rates which will also put growth under slower track. High Grwoth is good only if infaltion is under control.
3. The currency seems to sterngthen putting exports in terms of services (software, ITES) as well as all other export oriented themes
4. Elections next year hence political unstability is imagined.

The US is gradually moving towards a slow calm recession and no outcome seems possible. Interests rates at all time low, dollar weakning against all major curriences especially euro, crude fuelling upto 110$/barrel Gold touching $1000+/troy ounce are bad signs. Commodity infaltion putting gloabl central banks under pressure. Major banks registering liquidity crunch and is now spreading to UK thus the effect is large in terms not only in liquidity magnitude but geographical magnitudes too.........
The issue remains from subprime to morgtage lenders to Subprime bond insurers and now investment banks. Its now spreading to US economy and finally Global economies. The Us eletcions are on their way so nothing can be said about the future policy there too...

In this case whats the problem in Asia and emerging markets. We will narrow our spectrum a bit and talk on India and China. Where China's dependence on US for exports is large a slowdown may hit Percapita income as well as PPP in the US resulting declining exports and slowing the economy.
Whereas India which is still said to be a domestic economy will be less hit. Its true but still i feel the brunt will be faced here. We depend on software exports to the US and also services like BPOs and KPOs.The bulk of this comes from the US BFSI and manufacturing sector which in turn is in trouble. Reduction in projects will lead to a bit unemployement and salaries amy not move briskly. The so called "domestic economy" will not produce its growing middle class and the dream may be schattered. On the other hand we have a partial hedge by new clients from US and UK which may start outsourcing owing to cost cutting measures and to improve profitability in the recession.
Indias Booming infrastructure space has to face the problem of the global liquidity crunch. DLF (Forbes 2000, more than 3 quarters of BSE reality index in market cap) has canceled its REETS singapore issue. Projects are slowing down suffuring lack of investments. Thats a bad sign.
Things like tax limits raced in the budget may fuel domestic momentum and per capita income fulling domestic market a bit. Things like 60,000cr to the farmers by the Hon Union Finance minister is to appreciated as it will increase domestic agro productivity and help bring infaltion under control compared to the global scenario. But the Global infaltionary effects will still be prevalent.
What is to be seen in this year is:
1 How we can save ourselves from the global infaltion moves?
2. How the US economy moves and the effects on India's service sector?
3. Investments ?Will they continue? espeacially in reality and infra?
4. How the Indian and the US elections take place and what is the result?Hence what will be the new policy?
Its a chaotic situation for the short term. Long term India will produce better growth in Asia. It will be an imp investment destination. SO hold on...........invest for the longterm. Forget the shortterm jitters around buy at reasonable valuations. Be stock specific not sector specific.Do not discount on CAGRs but imagine the total global dependenices of the scrip and the effect on liquidity commodity prices on its earning.Its not simple to invest now in case of the global turnmoil. Time will produce results and produce above answers making the rainy sky of investment clear like a sunny day.Trust yourselves, if not invest only via MFs.

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